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1st and 10 at IND 23 (9:57) A.Luck pass incomplete short right to C.Fleener [R.Ninkovich].
4-2-5, 5 Rushers (1 MLB), Cover-1 Man
12 Personnel, 470 U-Out R-Flat Release`
You’ve entered the locker room after a disappointing half where you only managed to score once on four possessions (including a missed field goal) while the Patriots managed to score on all but one possession, an opportunity you handed right back to them on a muffed punt. Part of the reason for your troubles involve one single player on the opposing defensive line who keeps matching up against your RT and destroying him. Well, I guess coming out of the half you’re going to have to find a way to keep your RT from falling apart right? The Colts did manage to do that, on the first passing play of the second half they ignored blocking Ninkovich altogether, alleviating the issue of Reitz losing to him but not at all dealing with the issue of blocking him. It’s hard to know exactly why the call was for the line to shift left, but it was very obviously the wrong one. Herron gets matched up having to block Hightower while Ninkovich rushes freely from a very wide LEO spot. Luck gets rid of the ball as quickly as he can but he takes a pointless hit for it.
The Colts routes however are showing an adjustment. Using both of the openings they saw at the end of the last quarter they run a group of intersecting routes, with Fleener cleaning out the vertical at the right hash and Hilton running a slant to pull coverage to his side (along with leaving his man defending air, since the Patriots Cover-1 Man calls for the horizontal short routes to be passed off) and leaving Wayne in a wide open space. If only Luck wasn’t pressured, he could have hit him here.
3rd and 8 at IND 25 (9:08) (Shotgun) A.Luck pass incomplete deep left to T.Hilton.
3-2-6, 3 Rushers, Cover-2 Man
11 Personnel, 989 TE-Block R-WR Vertical
The Patriots stand up both Hightower and Jones at the line to create some confusion with the Colts linemen, with Hightower stepping up at the snap but backing off leaving Jones in a one on one with Fleener. Not the matchup you want. For a Tight End, Fleener does a pretty good job of getting on him but he just isn’t fast enough to hold down Jones, who bends around him and forces Luck out of the pocket. Of course, Luck could always run since the two players on the right side have now bailed out of the rush and the other has done a speed rush and is now behind the QB but wait he can’t because Rob Ninkovich is right there to contain from all the way across the god damn formation. Ninkovich has come over from his LEO spot, followed Lucks movements, and kept him from running.
The Colts go back to their old vertical ways, throwing everyone but the tight end deep on 3rd and long against a Cover-2 Man. There are two players that have a potential deep throw available to them (Moncrief and Wayne, both heading to the middle of the field) thanks to Duron Harmon coming up to the middle of the field and McCourty being the raincloud over Hilton’s day but you can’t hit these deep routes if you have pressure in your face. The Patriots haven’t changed anything yet other than showing a second fake look at the line.
1st and 10 at IND 20 (3:19) (Shotgun) A.Luck pass short middle to H.Nicks to IND 35 for 15 yards (L.Ryan).
4-2-5, 4 Rushers, Cover-1 Man
11 Personnel, 910 TE-Block R-Release Flat
The Patriots again bring up Hightower and have Collins take two steps forward at the snap in order to mess with the protection, forcing Dwayne Allen to pass block Hightower and Center Khalid Holmes to get on Collins in the middle of the field. instead of helping the LT Castanzo. It won’t matter because of Luck’s short drop back, but it’s another wrinkle the Patriots have added into the second half.
The Colts have a bubble screen and slant combo on the same side in order to force the slot CB to come down and have Nicks just need inside leverage to be open. It works, and Nicks gets an easy grab and the first reminder in a long time that he’s not just a figment of his own imagination.
1st and 10 at IND 35 (2:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) A.Luck pass short left to D.Allen pushed ob at IND 40 for 5 yards (B.Browner).
4-2-5, 4 Rushers (2 MLB) Cover-1 Man
11 Personnel, 934 W-Skinny Post R-Block`
Again, the Patriots are changing up their rushers on passing downs. This time, both of the DE’s back into coverage while both MLBs rush cross and rush the A-gaps. The Offensive Line has trouble dealing with this and two Patriots manage to find their way behind the line.
The Colts pass calls are continuing the underneath picks, this time Moncrief’s skinny post blocks Brandon Browner from getting all the way across to Dwayne Allen. It’s working and keeping the Colts moving down the field.
2nd and 5 at IND 40 (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) A.Luck pass incomplete deep left to H.Nicks.
4-2-5, 4 Rushers, Cover-1 Man
11 Personnel, 964 W-Shallow Cross R-WR Curl
With Dwayne Allen way detached from the line of scrimmage, Ninkovich sets himself up right outside of Allen, while Browner lines up just a few yards off him. Ninkovich is just there to bump him if he goes outside before rushing. Reitz is actually prepared for this and Ninkovich doesn’t manage to engage him before having to bail. Trouble would appear elsewhere on the line as the two solo blockers LG Mewhort and LT Castanzo would both lose their battles. Alan Branch goes unblocked as Mewhort expects to have Holmes helping him but finds air, and Castanzo gets knocked around by Jones inside slant turned spin. Luck, hurried, is forced to try and throw a ball on the move without being able to step into it, so he just throws it towards the sideline and hopes Nicks can adjust.
The Colts playcalling is finding a lot more players open now, even without picks. They line Hilton up on the right side and run him on a shallow cross with Dwayne Allen curling in the center of the field between Hilton and McCourty, who drops to try and keep Allen from taking a potential Deep In route like before. Nicks is wide open like he was before, but the pressure is making it impossible to hit these routes. The Colts should have realized at this point in the game that without additional blockers it’s going to be impossible to hit these deep routes, no matter how open.
3rd and 5 at IND 40 (2:24) (Shotgun) A.Luck pass short right intended for T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by D.Revis at IND 43. D.Revis to IND 13 for 30 yards (A.Luck; L.Louis).
4-2-5, 4 Rushers, Cover-1 Man
11 Personnel, 439 W-Flat R-Release Flat
The Patriots false pressure adjustment continues with the Patriots leaving both A gaps uncovered while the LBs move up slightly to bring the scare of blitzing. Neither do of course, but the Center is stuck waiting while everyone gets a one on one. Surprisingly, everyone on the line holds together enough to pressure luck (except Mewhort who’s slowly being turned by Branch, but it doesn’t reach Luck at least). Reitz even manages to catch the Stunt that Jones and Ninkovich pull.
The Colts call another underneath pick play. This time Moncriefs vertical is taking out Hiltons defender as he goes out to the flat. It works as planned, Arrington is completely locked behind the athletic blob that is Moncrief and Revis crashing in coverage, but Revis is able to separate before they become permanently fused together. Despite not being his duty at all, Revis will see the play unfolding in front of him and just break on the ball and he breaks on it fast, jumps high, and takes it out of the air. Luck might have been able to make a better throw if he threw it with more velocity but you really can’t put any blame on him. The play went exactly as expected, except the mind of an elite player is a variable that’s hard to account for.
1st and 10 at IND 23 (2:00) (Shotgun) A.Luck pass incomplete short right to T.Hilton. PENALTY on NE-K.Arrington, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at IND 23 - No Play.
4-2-5, Rushing 4, Cover-1 Man
12 Personnel, 964 U-Post R-Slot Flat
Again, the Patriots show a Linebacker up at the line to threaten another rush before backing him into coverage. Reitz is finally managing from getting outright beat by Ninkovich and is keeping him contained.
The Colts are running four routes within the first 10 yards and all of them are well covered. Luck doesn’t have anywhere to throw here, and decides to anticipate a throw to Hilton on his In route, but doesn’t expect that Arrington recovers from the vertical turn to get his hands into Hiltons chest and slows him down. Nothing can be done here.
1st and 10 at IND 33 (1:55) (Shotgun) A.Luck pass incomplete deep right to D.Moncrief (D.Revis).
4-2-5, 4 Rushers (1 MLB), Cover-1 Man
12 Personnel, 969 U-Out R-Block
You keep bringing your Linebackers up to fake a blitz, eventually you have to send one just to keep them guessing. This time, Jones drops out from the LDE spot (Ninkovich got moved to the right side, since Reitz had stopped being an easy target), and Jamie Collins is coming straight in from the MLB spot into the gap between the RT/RG. On the right, Ninkovich tries to bend Castanzo outside by turning his hips downfield and then cross face but Castanzo isn’t as easy as Reitz and stops him, despite not having a perfect base when delivering the punch. #72 Joe Vellano is in for Wilfork and is bullrushing from the LDT, and surprisingly is making progress with it despite not having the leverage at the start. Collins however is the real star of this play as a rusher, he uses his speed and agility to rush down between the right B gap (QB perspective) and cut between the RB/RT, getting really skinny and able to come up to Luck in the pocket. It helps that Tipton decides to blindly try and shoulder Collins by putting his head down, allowing him to get that angle.
Luck decides immediately he wants Moncrief. Maybe he’s getting impatient, but it definitely seems like he’s had enough at this point. Doesn’t even bother reading the rest of the field, he’s taking Moncrief on a vertical and he gives him a real chance but Moncrief has to jump for his ball instead of trying to lean up against Revis and wait for it to drop. This is a jump ball that you have to box out the CB on. Luck could throw a better ball but the WR’s job isn’t to ask for a better ball.
2nd and 10 at IND 33 (1:48) (Shotgun) A.Luck pass incomplete deep left [Cha.Jones].
4-2-5, 4 Rushing (1 MLB), Cover-1 Man
12 Personnel, 994 U-Block R-Block
Ninkovich takes a false step on the left before dropping into coverage, while Collins is on the attack again. First, Collins slightly bends to the left which might hold one of Allen or Tipton just a split second longer, he takes his first two steps straight up so Dwayne Allen has to deal with the two-way go, and then takes the path to the right of #96 Alan Branch. Because of Allen’s starting position and the side where the play fake is for Tipton, both of them have poor angles on Collins who gets through both blocks and drives Luck out of the pocket. Although the glory of his pressure is Collin’s to hold over his enemies, both Branch and Jones do a good job rushing away from that hole and leaving it wide open for Collins. I wonder if this was the intended rush or based on a defensive read on the backfield, because it works out too well.
The Colts ran a similar play earlier in the game out of the 13 personnel, with a 934 pattern instead of a 994 (the Y ran an out instead of a vertical). It was blanketed that time, and this time was no different. If Collins gets blocked it’s likely that one of Tipton or Allen would release into the open flat and take whatever YAC they could get.
3rd and 10 at IND 33 (1:40) (Shotgun) A.Luck pass incomplete short right to Z.Tipton.
3-2-6, 3 Rushers, Cover-2 Man
11 Personnel, 934 W-Deep Corner R-Release Flat
Again, bringing up the Linebackers. Although Jamie Collins doesn’t come into the line like Hightower, his presence still causes the center to take a moment before shifting to his right. Hightower really sells his rush, and the Patriots end up having the Center, Right Guard, and Running Back of the Colts just waiting, wasting time. Meanwhile, the Patriots have Ninkovich on a 1 on 1 in a situation where they are only rushing three against 6 blockers. He does what he’s been doing all game, rushes Reitz outside but then adds some fancy by swiping his arms away and when Reitz tries to lean on Ninkovich and use his momentum, he spins back and has a free path to Luck. Reitz is going to forget this game ever happened.
The Colts send all the WRs on deep breaking routes and attempt to either hit Fleener on the underneath or Tipton on the checkdown. This play might be designed to hit Reggie Wayne on the corner route but it’s just not possible in this situation and Luck probably knows that. He tries to throw to Tipton who has some room to maybe make a play for a first down, but the throw is too low thanks to the pressure from Ninkovich.
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