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Tackled by shoestrings
The biggest complaint I have about Johnson’s game is that he gets tackled too easily, particularly with people diving after him and just barely swiping at his ankles causing him to fall down. It shows a severe lack of balance on his part. This is concerning because as a smaller RB he’s going to have to make his money running on the edges and working in open space, and these are the kinds of tackles you need to avoid to be successful in those areas.
Fumbling
I also have a small concern about ball security. On longer runs where he’s breaking tackles and fighting hard for extra yards, his ball security seems lax. These are the three fumbles he had from the game I watched on tape, and you can see that they are all because he’s fighting for extra yardage at the end of the play. He didn’t have all that many fumbles throughout his career, but ball security is still something to keep in mind. Fighting for an extra yard or two is great, but it’s all for naught if you fumble at the end of it. Fortunately, he seems to at least be aware of this issue, as you can see a number of plays in the “Pad Level” section where he goes max protection on the football when getting hit. Hopefully this fumbling tendency won’t manifest itself as a greater problem in the NFL.
Overall, I think Duke Johnson does a number of things that will translate to the pro game well. I love his consistently low pad level and his burst. I also love his ability to avoid defenders who get backfield penetration. I feel as though, despite his smaller size, he can become a feature back in the NFL because he is accomplished at running between the tackles. He can catch out of the backfield well and block decently, so he can be an every down back. However, I am somewhat concerned by his lack of balance. The best fit for him in the NFL will be in an outside zone scheme like Kubiak’s, where he can make one cut and use his quickness to get up the field in a hurry. He also probably shouldn’t be used in short yardage situations. I would expect him to spend his first couple of years splitting time with another RB, and then he might be ready to take on a full time feature role.
Pro Comparison and Draft Projection
Pro Comparison:
Johnson is a versatile back who is somewhat limited by his size. I think a good comparison would be Gio Bernard, who lacks top end speed but is very quick and can contribute in all facets of the game. Another similar player might be Justin Forsett, who really found a home in Kubiak’s system and played very well as a veteran after bouncing around the league for quite a while. Johnson won’t begin his career as a full time player and he may never develop into one, but he can certainly be a positive contributor in a multi-RB system.
Draft Projection: I expect him to be taken in the late second/early third.
