Rookie Review: Comparing the TDs and Turnovers in 2014 of Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, and Derek Carr
A while ago I finished a series of articles on Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, and Derek Carr where I look at each touchdown and interception the three rookie QBs threw in 2014. This article is to wrap-up those posts, and give a bit of a comparison between the three rookies. If you missed one of those articles or just want a refresher, they are below:
Before I begin the post in earnest, I’d like to offer a disclaimer. The analysis I’m making in these posts is based off of a subset of plays that doesn’t even represent a tenth of each rookie’s attempts in 2014. While I believe that looking at TDs and Turnovers can give you a view into some of the things each player does well and some of the things each player needs to work on, I don’t believe it gives you a complete view of each QB. I’m going to try not to make any sweeping generalizations in this post. I will be comparing the players within each category, but I’ll try not to make any overarching statements. If I do, please don’t take them the wrong way.
With that being said, I’d like to include one more housekeeping point before I begin. The article has three pages. The first is a comparison of the charting data for the QBs’ TD passes, while the second does the same thing for the interceptions. The third page is a breakdown of what I think are the two best throws each QB made as well as the two worst throws.
Touchdown Charting Data
Yardage Breakdown
| Bortles | Bridgewater | Carr | |
| Yards | 270 | 320 | 257 |
| Average | 24.5 | 22.9 | 12.2 |
| Yards after catch | 88 | 151 | 123 |
| Average | 8.0 | 10.8 | 5.9 |
| Yards in Air | 176 | 169 | 134 |
| Average | 16.0 | 12.1 | 6.4 |
| Yards in Air+ | 202 | 196 | 200 |
| Average | 18.4 | 14 | 9.5 |
The difference between “Yards in Air” and “Yards in Air+” is that I give credit for yards in the endzone in “Yards in Air+.” So, if the line of scrimmage is the 2 and he throws a TD pass that’s caught 7 yards into the endzone, the YIA for that play is 2 while the YIA+ is 9.
One thing that’s clear is that Bridgewater and Bortles were both throwing much further down the field on average than Carr was. Bortles more than doubled his average yards per pass, and Bridgewater nearly did. Same for Yards in Air. Carr made up some ground on YIA+, but he’s still far behind. Bortles was the biggest bomber of the three, and Bridgewater was somewhat helped by YAC, but he was still targeting players deep down the field (14 yards past the LOS on average). Part of this trend could be based on the number of TD passes each player threw, as Carr obviously threw the most, while Bortles threw the least.
The reason Carr had such a lower average than Bridgewater or Bortles will become clear in the next breakdown, the breakdown by distance:
Distance Breakdown
| Bortles | Bridgewater | Carr | |
| Fewer than 6 Yards | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| Between 6 and 15 yards | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| More than 15 yards | 7 | 8 | 4 |
Carr clearly threw the most short TDs of the bunch. Taking a look at this, you could say “oh man, Carr’s TD numbers were really helped by the fact that he was throwing on the goal line a lot.” But I don’t think that would be a good conclusion to come to for two reasons. First of all, the compressed field around the goal line makes the degree of difficulty on those TD throws much higher. Secondly, it’s a function of the offense Carr played in. Carr threw an astounding 16 of his TD passes from inside the 10 yard line. How many did the Raiders rush for inside the ten? Just two all season. The run game Carr had was abysmal, and that’s why he threw so many short TD passes. For reference, Bridgewater threw 6 TD passes inside the 10, but the Vikings ran for 9 in games where Teddy played. Bortles threw 4 from inside the 10, and the Jaguars ran for 7 in those situations. So, to me, it’s clear that it’s not really fair to directly compare the length of TD passes that Carr was throwing to Bridgewater and Bortles. By the same token, Carr’s TD total was almost certainly inflated because he was throwing so many passes inside the 10, so it’s probably not fair to compare his totals to Bridgewater and Bortles.
Location Breakdown
| Bortles | Bridgewater | Carr | |
| Deep Left | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Deep Middle | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Deep Right | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Intermediate Left | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Intermediate Middle | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Intermediate Right | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Short Left | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| Short Middle | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Short Right | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Something that really surprises me is that Bortles didn’t throw any passing TDs on routes that were within five yards of the LOS in 2014. He didn’t trhow many TD passes inside the 10, so that helps explain it. The other reason is that none of his receivers were able to take a screen to the house, which both Bridgewater and Carr had receivers do. Bortles and Carr almost match each other perfectly on the number of TD passes they threw on intermediate routes. Bridgewater sticks out with 5 TD passes to the deep right, while Carr sticks out with 6 TD passes to the short left.
Situational Breakdown
| Bortles | Bridgewater | Carr | |
| Crunch Time | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Garbage Time | 4 | 0 | 6 |
Carr and Bortles were obviously both on bad teams, so each got a lot of work in garbage time, which led to each throwing a large number of TDs while behind big. Bridgewater, on the other hand, threw no TDs of this variety, but instead helped his team with 2 clutch TD passes. Carr also had two such passes, but Bortles was not able to come up with any on the year.
Quarter Breakdown
| Bortles | Bridgewater | Carr | |
| 1st Quarter | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 2nd Quarter | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 3rd Quarter | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 4th Quarter/OT | 5 | 3 | 10 |
From the previous table, the reason Carr has 10 4th quarter TDs should be clear: he threw a lot in garbage time. Same goes for Bortles. If you take away those TDs, Carr spread his TD passes out almost even across the different quarters, while Bortles only has 1 in the fourth. I think the QBs definitely deserve some credit for their garbage time TDs, but I don’t give them full credit.
The only other thing that sticks out to me here is that Bridgewater threw quite a few TDs in the 2nd Quarter. Specifically, he was really good at throwing TDs late in the 2nd. This is a good trend because it’s putting the Vikings in a good position going into halftime.
Down Breakdown
| Bortles | Bridgewater | Carr | |
| 1st Down | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 2nd Down | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 3rd Down | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 4th Down | 0 | 0 | 1 |
If anything, it’s interesting to look at the difference between Bridgewater and Bortles, who both threw the majority of their TDs on first down, and Carr, who most often threw his TDs on third down. I have no idea if this means anything.
Route Breakdown
| Bortles | Bridgewater | Carr | |
| Vertical | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Flat/Screen | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| Corner | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Crossing | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Post | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Curl | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Out | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Slant | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Double Move | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Vertical routes are clearly the most common route these QBs threw TDs on. As I mentioned above, Bortles didn’t throw any TDs on short routes, which is certainly intriguing. Further study on him would be required to tell if it was just that the Jaguars didn’t execute those short routes well or if it just wasn’t a big part of their offense. For the Vikings and Raiders, however, those screen/flat routes definitely came into play often. Corner and Crossing routes also resulted in a number of TDs for these QBs.
That’s all of the TD charting data I’m going to cover. Go to the next page for the beginning of the interception charting data.
CLICK HERE TO READ THE NEXT PAGE OF THE ARTICLE
Interception Charting Data
Blame Breakdown
| Bortles | Bridgewater | Carr | |
| QB’s Fault | 12 | 6 | 8 |
| Partially QB’s Fault | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Not QB’s Fault | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Bortles struggled mightily at points during his rookie season, and I think this comparison shows it pretty clearly. Bridgewater and Carr come out looking pretty similarly, although I did absolve Bridgewater of fault three times. One was on a Hail Mary, and the other two were on drops by Matt Asiata.
Now, after looking at blame, let’s try to break the causes of the interceptions down a little further.
Cause
| Bortles | Bridgewater | Carr | |
| Bad Throw | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Bad Decision | 13 | 4 | 9 |
| Pressured | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Great Defense | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Tipped | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Dropped | 0 | 3 | 2 |
I think this once again shows that Bortles struggled more often than his two rookie counterparts, and I also think it once again paints Bridgewater favorably. He had fewer poor decisions and poor throws than Carr did. Carr and Bortles would have a lot of overlap with plays where they would make both a bad decision and a bad throw, but Bridgewater did not have that nearly as often. Some other things worth noting are that all three rookies faced pressure on roughly the same number of interceptions, but Carr and Bortles had defenders make great plays against them twice as often as Bridgewater did. Bridgewater dealt with more WR drops, however, as three of his interceptions were on dropped passes while two of Carr’s were and none of Bortles’ were.
No let’s take a lot at how far they were throwing the passes that got intercepted.
Distance Breakdown
| Bortles | Bridgewater | Carr | |
| Fewer than 6 Yards | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| Between 6 and 15 yards | 11 | 3 | 6 |
| More than 15 yards | 5 | 5 | 3 |
Despite throwing the most interceptions of the group, only one of Bortles’ interceptions was in the short range. Combine this with his TD data, and you see that big plays, good or bad, didn’t happen all that often when Bortles threw the ball short in 2014. Bridgewater ended up distributing out the distance of his interceptions fairly evenly, while Carr had somewhat of a concentration of interceptions in his intermediate passes, but it’s nothing like Bortles’ 11 interceptions on passes between 6 and 15 yards.
Location Breakdown
| Bortles | Bridgewater | Carr | |
| Deep Left | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Deep Middle | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Deep Right | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Intermediate Left | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| Intermediate Middle | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Intermediate Right | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Short Left | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Short Middle | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Short Right | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Throwing to the left (across his body) appears to be a huge problem for Bortles, and that will need to be fixed. His footwork just completely falls apart in those situations. As for Bridgewater and Carr, there are no really abundant trends, although both threw the highest number of interceptions when throwing to the intermediate right.
Now let’s take a look at the game situation each player was facing:
Situational Breakdown
| Bortles | Bridgewater | Carr | |
| Crunch Time | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Garbage Time | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Desperation | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Each rookie threw an interception in desperation. They also all came up short in crunch time at least once, with Carr throwing a pick twice with the game on the line. The Vikings played a lot of close games in 2014, and Bridgewater therefore ended up not throwing any TDs or INTs of the garbage time variety. Bortles and Carr, however, both got a lot of garbage times passes in, which led two 4 and two interceptions, respectively, in garbage time.
Let’s move on to how the interceptions look by quarter:
Quarter Breakdown
| Bortles | Bridgewater | Carr | |
| 1st Quarter | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2nd Quarter | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| 3rd Quarter | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 4th Quarter/OT | 7 | 1 | 4 |
Teddy Bridgewater threw more than a third of his passes in the 2nd Quarter, and that might help explain why it was far and away the leader for him both in terms of TDs and INTs. Similarly, Bortles threw more passes in the 4th than any other Quarter, which helped lead to his 7 4th Quarter interceptions (the 4 garbage times didn’t hurt either). Carr spread out his interceptions a bit more than Bridgewater and Bortles did. A good sign is that none of these young QBs got in the habit of putting their defense in a tough situation early in the game, as each player only threw 1 first quarter interception.
Now let’s take a look at the interception breakdown by down:
Down Breakdown
| Bortles | Bridgewater | Carr | |
| 1st Down | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 2nd Down | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 3rd Down | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 4th Down | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Like with TDs, Bridgewater threw most of his INTs on first down and Carr threw most of his INTs on third down. Bortles, on the other hand, struggled most with interceptions on 2nd down. Like with TDs, I have no idea if this means anything, but it’s at least a little interesting to look at.
That’s all of the interception charting data I’m going to cover. Go to the next page for my favorite and least favorite throws from each QB.
CLICK HERE TO READ THE NEXT PAGE OF THE ARTICLE
Best Throws
1-10-NYG 30 (Q3, 1:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 11-M.Lee for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Here the Jaguars run a very strange formation with two offensive linemen split wide, presumably to block on a potential screen play. The Giants’ defense is visibly confused by this. The Jaguars don’t actually run the play to that side of the field, and instead Marqise Lee just outruns the opposing CB. This is a great throw from Bortles. He leads Lee past the CB, the throw is just inside the boundary, and the deep safety is completely taken out of the play. This is the throw you would have liked to have seen to Robinson against the Dolphins and to Hurns on the first TD against the Bengals. Great play by Bortles.
2-4-HOU 4 (Q1, 3:48) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 88-A.Hurns for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
On a bootleg, Bortles’ underneath option, the fullback, was taken out by a defender knocking him to the ground. This leaves no fewer than five Texans defenders between Bortles and his WR Hurns. Bortles does a very good job of extending the play for as long as possible, and Hurns fights hard to get free. Eventually, a small window opens and Bortles rockets the ball in for the TD catch. While not a particularly long pass, it’s an excellent play by the pair of rookies.
3-8-MIA 21 (Q2, 11:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 15-G.Jennings for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Jennings runs a corner route, going underneath the CB. Bridgewater and Jennings are clearly in sync, because the rookie releases the ball before Jennings leaves his break and it’s directly on target. This is not an easy throw to make because it needs to be threaded in between the CB and the sideline, and it’s executed perfectly. A nice catch by Jennings seals the TD.
1-10-MIN 44 (Q1, 6:01) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 12-Ch.Johnson for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
First let’s take a look at the DL. The Jets run a stunt between their two DTs, and the LDE rushes to the inside. While the stunt is picked up, the DE isn’t. Bridgewater does a nice job climbing up in the pocket to avoid the pressure. Now look at Johnson. Around the first down marker, he executes a double move that gets the corner to bite. From there, he gets about four yards of separation on the CB which is a mile in the NFL. Bridgewater makes a very nice throw and hits Johnson in stride for a long TD.
3-3-DEN 5 (Q2, 11:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 12-B.Butler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Carr’s facing pressure from both sides and right up the middle. Butler is his second or third read. Butler himself is running a skinny post that Bradley Roby has well defended. There really is only one place Carr can put the ball for it to be a catch, and the throw is perfect. Butler makes the catch falling out of the endzone and the Raiders put up points.
4-1-SEA 1 (Q3, 3:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 81-M.Rivera for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
This is a very difficult throw to make. First, there’s a defender in Carr’s face right away so he has to fade away from the throw. The Seahawks’ defense does mess up, as four defenders go after the underneath route and no one follows Rivera, but Sherman recovers and makes the throw even more difficult. Carr lobs the ball up in the right place and Rivera goes up and makes the catch. Good play by both players.
Worst Throws
3-4-JAC 26 (Q2, 3:07)(Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left intended for 16-D.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Gipson at JAC 34. 39-T.Gipson to JAC 33 for 1 yard (16-D.Robinson).
This is bad on multiple levels. First, Bortles completely stares down the route, and Gipson breaks on it early. Secondly, he throws while backpedaling, which is just a terrible idea. The throw has no power on it and Gipson gets there for his second pick of the game.
1-10-CIN 18 (Q4, 10:04) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 88-A.Hurns for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Yes, I chose a play that was a TD as one of Bortles’ worst throws. This is a terrible decision and a bad throw by Bortles and he got totally bailed out by Hurns. Hurns is bracketed by two defenders. He should not throw this football. And if he’s going to throw the football, he shouldn’t be throwing it directly at the CB. Hurns makes a spectacular play to jump the pass like a DB. It’s a great play on his part. I don’t know what Bortles was thinking.
2-6-MIN 24 (Q2, 3:06) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 15-G.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay at MIN 34. 23-D.Slay to MIN 32 for 2 yards (15-G.Jennings).
Jennings is running an out route, and actually gets in really good position along the sideline. Bridgewater’s throw is just behind him. You need to throw out routes toward the sideline and with zip ont he pass. Bridgewater did neither on this throw. What should have been an easy first down turned into a really good scoring opportunity for the Lions. I should mention that Slay did make a very nice play to catch this ball.
1-10-DET 15 (Q1, 7:42) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 27-G.Quin at DET -2. 27-G.Quin to DET 18 for 20 yards (31-J.McKinnon).
Detroit is playing with single-high safety coverage. The route combination between Patterson and Jennings is supposed to force the deep safety (Quin) to choose to cover one of the two, and Bridgewater can hit the other for the TD. I don’t know if Bridgewater trusted his arm too much or he just failed to look Quin off, but he telegraphed the pass to Patterson and Quin (who was moving that direction at the snap) had an easy job of picking the ball off. I hate this decision. Jennings is such an obvious choice on this play. Quin’s movement dictates that. Seriously, a high school QB should have been able to make that read on the safety. Hitting Jennings for a TD would require a very precise throw, but he’s clearly the correct choice in this scenario (and Bridgewater, at least the version of him later in the season was money on the kind of throw he would need to make to complete it to Jennings). I have no idea why he chose to throw it at Patterson.
3-2-OAK 40 (Q2, 3:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 81-M.Rivera INTERCEPTED by 29-B.Roby at DEN 47. 29-B.Roby to DEN 47 for no gain (81-M.Rivera).
The pocket is collapsing around Carr but that’s no excuse for this throw. It’s just a terrible decision. Rivera has no chance on his dig route because the throw is right at Roby.
4-5-OAK 47 (Q4, :39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right intended for 18-A.Holmes INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Bush at DEN 36. 20-J.Bush to DEN 41 for 5 yards (83-S.Simonson).
This is a garbage time throw on 4th down, so it doesn’t matter and it’s no worse than an incomplete pass. It’s still a terrible decision by Carr, because he gets flustered by phantom pressure (he actually creates pressure by running towards a defender) and totally misses a wide open receiver at the bottom of the screen, instead opting to throw to the double-covered Andre Holmes.
While each rookie QB did some things well, there were also things the rookies each need to work on.
From looking at these plays, I think Blake Bortles has the furthest to go. I love the aggressiveness he showed in his rookie season, throwing the ball downfield often. However, you’d like to see that tempered with success in the short game, which didn’t happen. I thought he definitely progressed in terms of ball placement as his rookie year went on, but there are a number of things he still needs to work on. First and foremost is his footwork, which was downright atrocious at times. Secondly, he needs to do a better job of making smart decisions rather than just aggressive ones, because there were a number of times where his aggression got the better of him. There were also times where he telegraphed his throws, which he will need to cut back on.
For Teddy Bridgewater, I love his ball placement. He consistently shows the ability to drop passes in to his receivers on a dime. A second thing I think is great is his ability to handle pressure. There were a few plays I covered where it rattled him and caused an interception, but he also responded strongly to pressure and threw a number of TDs under duress. The third big positive for me was his decision making. I covered a very bad decision earlier on this page, but I think he displayed more consistently good decision making on these plays than either Carr or Bortles did, and his decision making was impressive, especially for a rookie. As for negatives, the biggest one for me is arm strength. That’s not to say I don’t think Teddy has the arm to make every NFL throw, but he’s inconsistent with it. There are a number of plays (particularly on out routes, which are some of the most tasking in terms of arm strength) where he should be throwing on a rope and instead the ball ends up in the hands of the defender because there wasn’t enough power behind it. And, although it wasn’t entirely shown in the subset of plays I covered, deep ball accuracy is another area where I think Teddy needs to significantly improve his game.
For Derek Carr, I really liked his deep ball when he threw it. One thing I think he has a knack for is throwing 50/50 balls to his receiver. Obviously on those plays the receiver ultimately has to go up and win the catch, but the QB can help out tremendously and Carr appears to make those plays easier on his receivers. I also have to commend Carr on what he was able to do without appreciable support for the run game (as evidence by the Raiders only having two rushing TDs inside the 10 yard line). He consistently put all of the physical tools you need to succeed in the NFL on display, and I’d put him ahead of Bridgewater and Bortles in that category. On the flip side, however, he made his fair share of rookie mistakes in the mental side of the game. There were a number of times where he tried to force passes that simply weren’t there. I think another big issue for him was with setting protections. He let pressure affect him, and there were quite a few plays (especially early in the season) where he allowed an unblocked rusher straight at him. As he progresses past his rookie season, look for these kinks in his mental game to be ironed out. If they aren’t, he might have a problem becoming a consistently successful QB.
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Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Film Breakdown, Football Breakdowns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, NFL Breakdowns, Oakland Raiders, QB, Rookie, Teddy Bridgewater
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