Jay Cutler’s 24 Total Turnovers in 2014
Over my next few articles, I’m going to be covering the biggest positives (touchdowns) and negatives (turnovers) from the NFC North QBs in 2014. Jay Cutler threw 18 interceptions during the 2014 regular season and lost 6 fumbles for a league-leading 24 turnovers. First, I’m going to cover some charting data I came up with while watching his passing. Then, on page 2 and beyond, there are my thoughts of the individual plays themselves. Here are the articles in the series that I have completed so far:
One of the first things I charted for each interception was blame. I assigned three categories, which should be self-explanatory:
Blame
| QB’s Fault | 10 |
| Partially QB’s fault | 5 |
| Not QB’s fault | 3 |
Cutler often gets lambasted for his carelessness, but I found that he wasn’t really fully at fault for quite a number of the interceptions he threw. A number of the interceptions appeared to be miscommunications between QB and receiver, where either the pass catcher ran the wrong route or Cutler threw to the wrong place based on the defense. Without knowing the play call, it’s difficult to tell who is at fault, but I tried to determine it in the breakdowns of the individual plays later in the article. Throwing in a couple of other types of plays, Cutler was only fully at fault for just over half of his interceptions on the year. Obviously, I’m also not counting potential interceptions that were dropped, so Cutler’s true number of interceptions he was at fault for is likely to be higher, but it’s certainly notable that he had so many interceptions he can’t be fully faulted for.
What caused the interceptions?
Cause
| Bad Decision | 5 |
| Bad Throw | 13 |
| Pressured | 7 |
| Great Defense | 4 |
| Dropped Pass | 1 |
| Tipped By Defense | 5 |
I only counted a pass as dropped when it hit both of the receiver’s hands.
Cutler’s main problem appeared to be with poor throws. He simply wasn’t accurate enough with his passing. He did have to face pressure fairly often, and there were a number of tips at the line of scrimmage (usually the fault of the offensive lineman) that ended up affecting his passes and turning them into interceptions.
What about distance covered? Cutler’s average depth of target on these throws was 18.8 yards. Where on the field was he throwing the ball? Here’s a breakdown of each throw:
Distance Breakdown
| Fewer than 6 Yards | 2 |
| Between 6 and 15 yards | 6 |
| More than 15 yards | 10 |
Location Breakdown
| Deep Left | Deep Middle | Deep Right |
| 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Intermediate Left | Intermediate Middle | Intermediate Right |
| 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Short Left | Short Middle | Short Right |
| 0 | 2 | 0 |
It quickly becomes clear that Cutler tends to have the most interception trouble with deep passes, and also passes to the right side of the field. He also had slightly more success throwing TDs to the left than the right, so maybe he’s worse at throwing to his right side, which is odd because you’d think that as a right-handed QB he’d have an easier time throwing to that side, but I digress.
What about the time left on the clock? First, a breakdown of potential game situations, followed by a breakdown by quarter:
Situational Breakdown
| Crunch Time | 0 |
| Garbage Time | 3 |
| Desperation | 3 |
Quarter Breakdown
| 1st Quarter | 3 |
| 2nd Quarter | 5 |
| 3rd Quarter | 4 |
| 4th Quarter/Overtime | 6 |
Cutler didn’t have any interceptions at all in crunch time, but he wasn’t particularly successful at leading the Bears on comebacks. He did, however, throw three picks late in big losses, and therefore had three garbage time interceptions. He also had three desperation throws at the end of halves. There is on play that overlaps to both the desperation and garbage time categories.
In terms of the breakdown by quarters, it seems to be a pretty even spread to me. It’s notable that Cutler threw 3 interceptions with fewer than 20 seconds left in the 2nd Quarter, which is a time where you want to score to gain some momentum going into halftime, so that’s not ideal.
Now let’s take a look at the interceptions he threw by down:
Down Breakdown
| 1st Down | 8 |
| 2nd Down | 3 |
| 3rd Down | 7 |
| 4th Down | 0 |
Cutler struggled with interceptions on 1st and 3rd down.
What about the kinds of routes he was throwing to?
Route Breakdown
| Vertical | 9 |
| Out | 3 |
| Slant | 2 |
| Post | 1 |
| Curl | 1 |
| Screen | 1 |
| Broken Play | 1 |
Cutler can sometimes struggle with vertical routes. As I mentioned before, Cutler had some miscommunications with his receivers, and on all of those plays the receiver ran a vertical route, so that may be inflating the numbers. Still, having half of your interceptions on deep throws is far from idea. Other than that he seemed to struggle with out routes, which are probably the most difficult throws to make in football (deep outs or corner routes, really).
Finally, let’s take a look at who Cutler was targeting on his interceptions:
Receiver Breakdown
| Martellus Bennett | 6 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 |
| Marquess Wilson | 2 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 |
| Matt Forte | 1 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 |
In my article on his TDs, I mentioned that Cutler didn’t find much variety in his TD targets. He actually threw interceptions to a higher number of receivers than the number of guys he threw TDs to, despite throwing 10 fewer picks. That’s not good. Martellus Bennett was thrown at as many times for INTs as he was TDs. If there’s one good thing, it’s that Jeffery caught 9 TDs with just 2 interceptions thrown his way. He’ll need to step up big next year with the departure of Marshall, and his play in 2014 is a good sign.
Since you’re probably tired of tables at this point, for the rest of the article I’m going to break down each TD pass from the film.
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Interceptions
1-10-CHI 43 (Q2, 5:50) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep right intended for 83-M.Bennett INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Graham at BUF 40. 20-C.Graham to CHI 15 for 45 yards (67-J.Mills). PENALTY on CHI-17-A.Jeffery, Illegal Use of Hands, 8 yards, enforced at CHI 15.
On this play, the Bills are in a Cover 3 defense, and the Bears run three vertical routes. Bennett is running the seam at the top of the screen with a WR running up the sideline. What this is supposed to do is stretch the corner to that side into trying to cover two routes, leaving one of the receivers open. This is possible because Cutler is throwing to the side of the field away from the deep safety, so he wouldn’t have been able get there in time. Theoretically, you would assume the corner to that side would be more concerned with the WR than the TE, so throwing to Bennett theoretically makes sense, but it doesn’t in practice here. Graham reads Cutler and jumps the throw for the interception. Cutler shouldn’t have made this throw because of Graham’s positioning. Additionally, the throw appears to be behind Bennett. So it was a bad throw and bad decision by Cutler. Something that’s worth noting is that Bennett doesn’t turn around until the ball was almost caught by the defender, so clearly he wasn’t expecting the pass. It could actually have been Bennett’s responsibility to turn around on time and catch this, but without knowing the play call I can’t tell. Either way it was definitely a miscommunication.
3-1-BUF 34 (Q4, 8:01) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 83-M.Bennett INTERCEPTED by 95-K.Williams at BUF 31. 95-K.Williams to BUF 33 for 2 yards (15-B.Marshall). PENALTY on CHI-15-B.Marshall, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 33. Penalty on CHI-14-S.Holmes, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
On this play the Bears run a bootleg and it’s well defended by the Bills. Bennett is initially assigned to block Mario Williams, but when the play continues on he releases the block and lets Williams chase Cutler, popping open. Cutler takes too long to realize Bennett has released his block, and takes long enough to throw the ball that Kyle Williams is able to get in the way and intercept the pass.
1-10-GB 24 (Q3, 7:39) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-J.Morgan INTERCEPTED by 52-C.Matthews (38-T.Williams) at GB 25. 52-C.Matthews pushed ob at CHI 35 for 40 yards (22-M.Forte).
This slant/flat route combo is intended to get Morgan open, but he doesn’t do a good job of getting to his landmark. The throw is predetermined when Cutler recognizes man coverage so it’s the correct decision, the receiver just doesn’t win position. The spot Cutler is throwing to is predetermined, it’s Morgan’s job to get to that area. That being said, Cutler needs to realize that Williams is jumping the route and his receiver isn’t on time. This should be just a batted pass but an unfortunate bounce allows Matthews to get the interception.
1-10-GB 45 (Q3, 1:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep right intended for 15-B.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 37-S.Shields at GB 27. 37-S.Shields pushed ob at CHI 11 for 62 yards (6-J.Cutler).
On this route, there’s a miscommunication between Cutler and Marshall. It’s like that Marshall has an option route on the double move and the QB and WR read the play differently. The route that should be run is based on the coverage. It appears that Cutler is throwing an out, which doesn’t make sense to me because Shields is playing with outside leverage on Marshall. Marshall runs vertical after the double move, and I believe that was the correct read. So I believe Cutler’s at fault here for misreading the play, although it’s really impossible to know without the pla ycall.
3-12-CAR 31 (Q1, 6:32) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle intended for 15-B.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 41-R.Harper at CAR 7. 41-R.Harper to CAR 8 for 1 yard (15-B.Marshall).
Here we have a LB lined up on Brandon Marshall, who’s running a seam route. With the mismatch of a LB (who also isn’t looking at the ball) on a WR, this isn’t a bad football decision, but it’s not one that’s going to make your receiver like you. Marshall is going to get blown up regardless on this play because Cutler has to throw the ball over the head of the LB but just in front of the safeties, who will get a hit on Marshall. The problem is Cutler’s throw isn’t great and Marshall has to reach back over the LB. He can’t catch the pass and it bounces into Harper’s hands. So, on this play, Cutler got Marshall hit hard and also threw a pick. Not great.
2-11-CHI 46 (Q4, 6:08) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle intended for 14-S.Holmes INTERCEPTED by 21-T.DeCoud at CAR 33. 21-T.DeCoud to CHI 32 for 35 yards (75-K.Long).
Santonio Holmes had so little impact for the Bears last year that I honestly forgot he played for them. Here, he does actually win and has a step on a slant route, but Cutler overthrows him and DeCoud, the deep safety, is able to make the interception.
3-2-MIA 37 (Q2, 7:13) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep left intended for 83-M.Bennett INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at MIA 21. 20-R.Jones to CHI 29 for 50 yards (15-B.Marshall). FUMBLES (15-B.Marshall), recovered by MIA-55-K.Misi at CHI 23. 55-K.Misi to CHI 23 for no gain (75-K.Long).
Martellus Bennett is running an out route from the slot, but he’s not open at all, with two defenders bracketing him. I don’t know why Cutler decides to throw this pass. In addition to that, it’s a bad throw and the pass is high. The only possible reason I can think of for this pass is that maybe the receiver at the top of the screen was supposed to run a post, but that doesn’t make sense either. I think the blame is squarely on Cutler here.
1-10-CHI 47 (Q2, :10) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep right intended for 15-B.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Revis at NE 5. 24-D.Revis to NE 5 for no gain (15-B.Marshall).
This ends the half so it’s essentially a Hail Mary. I called this a desperation throw because of that. Cutler didn’t quite have the arm behind this one to get it to the endzone, but this interception doesn’t matter.
2-10-CHI 20 (Q1, 6:02) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 83-M.Bennett INTERCEPTED by 33-M.Hyde (56-J.Peppers) at CHI 32. 33-M.Hyde to CHI 23 for 9 yards (22-M.Forte).
On this play Bennett is running an out route and gets a step on Hyde. Cutler correctly identifies that he’s open and lets the throw go. However, Jordan Mills has failed on his block and allowed Julius Peppers to get into the throwing lane. Peppers gets a hand up and just barely grazes the pass. It doesn’t do much, but it slows the pass down just enough to allow Hyde to get in front of Bennett and make the interception. Unlucky for Cutler.
3-5-GB 18 (Q4, 10:56) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 22-M.Forte INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Hayward at GB 18. 29-C.Hayward for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
You can’t tell from this angle but Cutler’s pass on this play actually deflected off of Kyle Long’s helmet (75). On one hand, if you’re an offensive lineman, you probably shouldn’t be just standing there doing nothing in the way of your QB’s target. On the other hand, if you’re the QB, you shouldn’t be hitting your offensive lineman with the pass regardless of the situation. For a fluky play, I give Cutler partial fault.
1-10-CHI 48 (Q2, :15) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep left intended for 17-A.Jeffery INTERCEPTED by 29-X.Rhodes at MIN 33. 29-X.Rhodes to MIN 33 for no gain (17-A.Jeffery).
This interception by Cutler doesn’t really matter, because it’s at the end of the first half, but if this is a completion it puts the Bears in FG range. There’s enough time left on the clock that I don’t classify it as a desperation throw. The route is a 20 yard deep out. I don’t think it’s a bad decision, because although Rhodes might have been able to recover if the throw was on target, I think Jeffery would have made the catch. The problem is the throw. I’m pretty sure the pass is tipped by Brian Robison, even though it wasn’t scored that way. The pass is obviously short, and Cutler definitely has the arm strength to make this throw, so I don’t think it was an underthrow due to lack of strength. I can’t verify 100% that this is a tipped pass because they don’t show it in a replay on the broadcast angle and the endzone angle is a bit blurry, but it looks like the ball is wobbling. If that’s the case, this interception really isn’t Cutler’s fault because Mills messed up. Since I can’t verify I gave him partial fault.
3-9-MIN 34 (Q3, 3:10) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 15-B.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at MIN 21. 22-H.Smith to CHI 27 for 52 yards (74-J.Bushrod).
The Bears’ OL gets totally destroyed by a zone blitz by the Vikings. No one knows who they’re supposed to block and multiple pass rushers get a free shot at Cutler, who has no chance. Therefore, whoever called the protections is really at fault. Cutler tried to throw the ball to Bennett and not get killed, but I don’t think he really had a chance to read Smith due to the imminent pressure, and Bennett ran a post route while Cutler threw for a curl. This was an easy interception for Smith that was caused by the confusion picking up the blitz. Still a bad decision by Cutler, but he was forced into it.
2-3-CHI 10 (Q4, 9:38) 6-J.Cutler pass deep right intended for 15-B.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 27-G.Quin (23-D.Slay) at CHI 42. 27-G.Quin ran ob at CHI 42 for no gain.
Terrible mechanics by Cutler cause this ball to be underthrown, tipped by Slay, and subsequently picked. He double clutches and isn’t properly set before he releases which means he can’t get enough arm strength behind the pass. It floats in the air and is late to get to Marshall, so Slay is in the way. Good play by Quin to catch the tipped ball.
1-10-DET 14 (Q4, :00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle intended for 10-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Ihedigbo (52-D.Tapp) at DET 0. Touchback. Untimed down.
This was a free play for the Bears after the clock ran out because of a penalty on the Lions. This play was entirely pointless because even if the Bears had scored a TD they still would have lost. So, I don’t entirely see the point in running a play. The throw is high and away from any WR but I don’t really care because I think it’s stupid to run a play here and risk a potential injury when you’ve already lost.
1-10-DAL 10 (Q4, 1:35) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-J.Morgan INTERCEPTED by 32-O.Scandrick at DAL -3. Touchback.
This is a garbage time play. Morgan is running a vertical route and Cutler doesn’t throw the ball high enough, so Scandrick is able to make the interception. It’s a really impressive vertical jump by Scandrick. Cutler needs to throw it a bit higher to avoid this.
3-8-CHI 9 (Q1, 14:08) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep left intended for 83-M.Bennett INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Robinson at CHI 26. 21-P.Robinson pushed ob at CHI 24 for 2 yards (19-J.Morgan).
Bennett does a good job of finding a hole in the zone and sitting there, but Cutler just missed the throw. It’s too wide for Bennett to handle, and the ball gets tipped, which allows Patrick Robinson to make the diving interception. Cutler is at fault here for the bad throw.
1-10-CHI 49 (Q2, :12) (Shotgun) 62-E.Britton reported in as eligible. 6-J.Cutler pass deep left intended for 10-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 42-P.Warren at NO 13. 42-P.Warren ran ob at NO 45 for 32 yards.
This appears to be a miscommunication between Cutler and Wilson, on the broadcast you can see Cutler talking to Wilson about it after the play. Cutler wanted Wilson to run a corner route based on the coverage but Wilson ran vertical. This is also a desperation throw as the clock is running out on the 2nd Quarter.
3-3-CHI 39 (Q3, 3:32) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep right intended for 17-A.Jeffery INTERCEPTED by 42-P.Warren at NO 23. 42-P.Warren ran ob at NO 44 for 21 yards.
Cutler just overthrows Jeffery here, who beat his man and would have had a big gain on this play if Cutler’s throw was on target.
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Fumbles
2-9-CHI 21 (Q2, 4:34) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 20, recovered by CHI-15-B.Marshall at CHI 2. 15-B.Marshall to CHI 2 for no gain (59-A.Lynch).
Here’s a miscommunication between the center and Cutler. It takes a couple of unfortunate bounces, but Marshall is able to recover on the 2. This is on the center, who snapped before Cutler was ready.
2-10-NYJ 44 (Q2, 1:34) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 46 for -10 yards (52-D.Harris). FUMBLES (52-D.Harris) (52-D.Harris), RECOVERED by NYJ-56-D.Davis at CHI 46. 56-D.Davis, dead ball declared at CHI 46 for no gain.
Cutler gets murdered by an unblocked blitzer and fumbles the ball. You’d like to see better ball security.
4-1-GB 35 (Q1, :45) 6-J.Cutler FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 36, and recovers at GB 36. 6-J.Cutler to GB 20 for 16 yards. PENALTY on GB-37-S.Shields, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at GB 20.
On a 4th and 1, it’s an aborted snap. This is either on the QB or center, but you can’t really tell. Cutler makes the most of it by taking it for 16 yards and a first down. Heads up play by Cutler to be aware of the situation and the fact that he had room to run in front of him.
1-10-CHI 20 (Q2, 10:11) 62-E.Britton reported in as eligible. 6-J.Cutler FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 18, and recovers at CHI 15. 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery pushed ob at CHI 33 for 13 yards (38-T.Williams).
More snap problems, but Cutler once again turns it into a positive, completing the pass for the first down.
4-21-CHI 34 (Q4, 1:14) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 26 for -8 yards (99-K.Short). FUMBLES (99-K.Short) (99-K.Short), RECOVERED by CAR-95-C.Johnson at CHI 28. 95-C.Johnson to CHI 28 for no gain (68-M.Slauson).
Cutler fumbles by being pancaked by Kawaan Short. Ball security while moving in the pocket is important and he doesn’t do it here.
1-10-CHI 38 (Q1, 4:50) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 38, recovered by CHI-25-K.Carey at CHI 28. 25-K.Carey to CHI 28 for no gain (52-P.Wheeler).
This is a backwards pass that is incomplete. Cutler just made a poor throw that was too difficult for Carey to reel in. You have to be more accurate than this on screens.
2-20-CHI 24 (Q4, 14:32) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 16 for -8 yards (91-C.Wake). FUMBLES (91-C.Wake) (91-C.Wake), RECOVERED by MIA-91-C.Wake at CHI 16. 91-C.Wake to CHI 16 for no gain (63-R.Garza).
Cutler once again fails to hold on to the ball when getting sacked from behind. It’s not like he wasn’t ready for the hit; he just failed to protect the football.
2-10-MIA 15 (Q4, 1:13) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 19, and recovers at MIA 19. 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short middle to 83-M.Bennett.
This snap was low and difficult for Cutler to handle, but he was able to pick it up and get a pass off. Unfortunately it was an incompletion, but this at least saved a potential loss.
1-10-CHI 20 (Q2, 1:07) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 14 for -6 yards (sack split by 90-Z.Moore and 54-D.Hightower). FUMBLES (90-Z.Moore), RECOVERED by NE-50-R.Ninkovich at CHI 15. 50-R.Ninkovich for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Once again, Cutler lacked ball security when moving in the pocket.
1-10-CHI 37 (Q2, 1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 28 for -9 yards (56-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (56-J.Peppers), RECOVERED by GB-56-J.Peppers at CHI 32. 56-J.Peppers to CHI 32 for no gain (70-M.Ola).
This time, Cutler’s actually winding up to throw when he’s hit. He should probably have sensed Peppers, who beat Jordan Mills badly, but he didn’t, so Peppers hit his throwing arm and knocked the ball loose, then fell on top of it.
3-15-TB 44 (Q1, 1:46) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 49 for -7 yards (93-G.McCoy). FUMBLES (93-G.McCoy), RECOVERED by TB-98-C.McDonald at CHI 49. 98-C.McDonald to CHI 46 for 3 yards (75-K.Long).
Here’s another hit as thrown where Cutler was about to attempt a pass but got the ball knocked out. One thing I should note is that Cutler had terrible fumble luck in 2014. For fumbles, it’s been statistically shown that the recovery rate hovers around 50% are there’s not significant correlation from year-to-year, which means that who recovers the ball is essentially random. Discounting aborted snaps (where the QB usually has an advantage to recovering them), Cutler lost every single one of his fumbles in 2014. That’s not a rate that he will keep up. For example, Aaron Rodgers had 7 non-aborted fumbles in 2014, and only lost 3 of them. Cutler losing all six is highly improbable and should not be counted against him, really.
Jay Cutler certainly did not have a stellar 2014, but after studying each of his turnovers, I think some of his struggles are a bit overblown. Again, I’m not considering dropped INTs and the like in this so it could be that Cutler had a number of potential interceptions dropped, but I don’t think he should be considered fully responsible for a number the interceptions he threw. It’s clear to me that Cutler and his receivers were not on the same page a number of times, which is a coaching issue in my mind. It could be that Cutler made the correct read on every one of those plays, or he could have made the correct read on none of them. It should be up to the coaching staff to make sure players know their responsibilities, and clearly Trestman and Co. did not do a good job in that department.
It should also not be overlooked that Cutler, while he does need to take care of the ball better when getting sacked, had terrible fumble luck. I would expect a repeat of 6 fumbles lost in 2015. Hopefully, with a new coaching staff and improved defense (it’s not like it can get any worse) Cutler will be able to lead the Bears to more victories in 2015.
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Chicago Bears, Film Breakdowns, Football Breakdowns, Fumbles, INTs, Jay Cutler, NFL Breakdowns, QB, Turnovers
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