Jay Cutler’s 24 Total Turnovers in 2014

Fumbles

2-9-CHI 21 (Q2, 4:34) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 20, recovered by CHI-15-B.Marshall at CHI 2. 15-B.Marshall to CHI 2 for no gain (59-A.Lynch).

Here’s a miscommunication between the center and Cutler. It takes a couple of unfortunate bounces, but Marshall is able to recover on the 2. This is on the center, who snapped before Cutler was ready.

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2-10-NYJ 44 (Q2, 1:34) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 46 for -10 yards (52-D.Harris). FUMBLES (52-D.Harris) (52-D.Harris), RECOVERED by NYJ-56-D.Davis at CHI 46. 56-D.Davis, dead ball declared at CHI 46 for no gain.

Cutler gets murdered by an unblocked blitzer and fumbles the ball. You’d like to see better ball security.

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4-1-GB 35 (Q1, :45) 6-J.Cutler FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 36, and recovers at GB 36. 6-J.Cutler to GB 20 for 16 yards. PENALTY on GB-37-S.Shields, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at GB 20.

On a 4th and 1, it’s an aborted snap. This is either on the QB or center, but you can’t really tell. Cutler makes the most of it by taking it for 16 yards and a first down. Heads up play by Cutler to be aware of the situation and the fact that he had room to run in front of him.

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1-10-CHI 20 (Q2, 10:11) 62-E.Britton reported in as eligible. 6-J.Cutler FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 18, and recovers at CHI 15. 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery pushed ob at CHI 33 for 13 yards (38-T.Williams).

More snap problems, but Cutler once again turns it into a positive, completing the pass for the first down.

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4-21-CHI 34 (Q4, 1:14) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 26 for -8 yards (99-K.Short). FUMBLES (99-K.Short) (99-K.Short), RECOVERED by CAR-95-C.Johnson at CHI 28. 95-C.Johnson to CHI 28 for no gain (68-M.Slauson).

Cutler fumbles by being pancaked by Kawaan Short. Ball security while moving in the pocket is important and he doesn’t do it here.

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1-10-CHI 38 (Q1, 4:50) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 38, recovered by CHI-25-K.Carey at CHI 28. 25-K.Carey to CHI 28 for no gain (52-P.Wheeler).

This is a backwards pass that is incomplete. Cutler just made a poor throw that was too difficult for Carey to reel in. You have to be more accurate than this on screens.

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2-20-CHI 24 (Q4, 14:32) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 16 for -8 yards (91-C.Wake). FUMBLES (91-C.Wake) (91-C.Wake), RECOVERED by MIA-91-C.Wake at CHI 16. 91-C.Wake to CHI 16 for no gain (63-R.Garza).

Cutler once again fails to hold on to the ball when getting sacked from behind. It’s not like he wasn’t ready for the hit; he just failed to protect the football.

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2-10-MIA 15 (Q4, 1:13) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 19, and recovers at MIA 19. 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short middle to 83-M.Bennett.

This snap was low and difficult for Cutler to handle, but he was able to pick it up and get a pass off. Unfortunately it was an incompletion, but this at least saved a potential loss.

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1-10-CHI 20 (Q2, 1:07) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 14 for -6 yards (sack split by 90-Z.Moore and 54-D.Hightower). FUMBLES (90-Z.Moore), RECOVERED by NE-50-R.Ninkovich at CHI 15. 50-R.Ninkovich for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Once again, Cutler lacked ball security when moving in the pocket.

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1-10-CHI 37 (Q2, 1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 28 for -9 yards (56-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (56-J.Peppers), RECOVERED by GB-56-J.Peppers at CHI 32. 56-J.Peppers to CHI 32 for no gain (70-M.Ola).

This time, Cutler’s actually winding up to throw when he’s hit. He should probably have sensed Peppers, who beat Jordan Mills badly, but he didn’t, so Peppers hit his throwing arm and knocked the ball loose, then fell on top of it.

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3-15-TB 44 (Q1, 1:46) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 49 for -7 yards (93-G.McCoy). FUMBLES (93-G.McCoy), RECOVERED by TB-98-C.McDonald at CHI 49. 98-C.McDonald to CHI 46 for 3 yards (75-K.Long).

Here’s another hit as thrown where Cutler was about to attempt a pass but got the ball knocked out. One thing I should note is that Cutler had terrible fumble luck in 2014. For fumbles, it’s been statistically shown that the recovery rate hovers around 50% are there’s not significant correlation from year-to-year, which means that who recovers the ball is essentially random. Discounting aborted snaps (where the QB usually has an advantage to recovering them), Cutler lost every single one of his fumbles in 2014. That’s not a rate that he will keep up. For example, Aaron Rodgers had 7 non-aborted fumbles in 2014, and only lost 3 of them. Cutler losing all six is highly improbable and should not be counted against him, really.

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Jay Cutler certainly did not have a stellar 2014, but after studying each of his turnovers, I think some of his struggles are a bit overblown. Again, I’m not considering dropped INTs and the like in this so it could be that Cutler had a number of potential interceptions dropped, but I don’t think he should be considered fully responsible for a number the interceptions he threw. It’s clear to me that Cutler and his receivers were not on the same page a number of times, which is a coaching issue in my mind. It could be that Cutler made the correct read on every one of those plays, or he could have made the correct read on none of them. It should be up to the coaching staff to make sure players know their responsibilities, and clearly Trestman and Co. did not do a good job in that department.

It should also not be overlooked that Cutler, while he does need to take care of the ball better when getting sacked, had terrible fumble luck. I would expect a repeat of 6 fumbles lost in 2015. Hopefully, with a new coaching staff and improved defense (it’s not like it can get any worse) Cutler will be able to lead the Bears to more victories in 2015.