Matthew Stafford’s 17 Total Turnovers in 2014
This is the last article on my series covering the biggest positives (touchdowns) and negatives (turnovers) from the NFC North QBs in 2014. Matthew Stafford threw 12 interceptions during the 2014 regular season and lost 3 fumbles. In his playoff game against the Cowboys, he added on another interception and lost fumble for 17 total turnovers on the year. First, I’m going to cover some charting data I came up with while watching his passing. Then, on page 2 and beyond, there are my thoughts of the individual plays themselves. Here are the articles in the series that I have completed so far:
One of the first things I charted for each interception was blame. I assigned three categories, which should be self-explanatory:
Blame
| QB’s Fault | 7 |
| Partially QB’s fault | 4 |
| Not QB’s fault | 2 |
When Stafford throws an INT, the most likely cause is that he was trying to force a deep pass and it ended up in the defense’s hands. Outside of that, he did have a few plays where his protection just completely failed him, which led to errant throws and passes tipped at the line of scrimmage. There were also two plays where his receiver just let a pass bounce off of their hands and into the arms of the defender. All told, throwing just 13 interceptions in 17 games isn’t bad, especially because only 7 of those were fully his fault in my mind.
What caused the interceptions?
Cause
| Bad Decision | 7 |
| Bad Throw | 11 |
| Pressured | 3 |
| Great Defense | 2 |
| Dropped Pass | 2 |
| Tipped By Defense | 4 |
I only counted a pass as dropped when it hit both of the receiver’s hands. I noted above that Stafford had this happen twice to him. Both should have been caught by an open receiver, but they were not. They weren’t the best throws, but NFL receivers should make those plays.
As I mentioned before, he also had a number of passes tipped by defensive linemen, although he really wasn’t pressured by defenders all that often on these throws. A play where a lineman gets his hands up in a throwing lane and tips a pass is still a protection failure, even if Stafford wasn’t technically pressured.
Finally, it’s worth noting that Stafford had a lot of errant throws on these interceptions. Ball placement appears to be a big issue with him, as he struggles to hit receivers in stride at times. That’s one of the biggest things he needs to work on.
What about distance covered? Stafford’s average depth of target on these throws was 21.8 yards. Where on the field was he throwing the ball? Here’s a breakdown of each throw:
Distance Breakdown
| Fewer than 6 Yards | 3 |
| Between 6 and 15 yards | 1 |
| More than 15 yards | 9 |
Location Breakdown
| Deep Left | Deep Middle | Deep Right |
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Intermediate Left | Intermediate Middle | Intermediate Right |
| 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Short Left | Short Middle | Short Right |
| 2 | 0 | 0 |
Stafford throws the ball downfield a lot. That is evident in both his average depth of target and his charting data on his interceptions. He threw twice as many deep interceptions as intermediate or short interceptions. This is a good sign for his ability to hit his targets in the short/intermediate range, but it also says that he might get a little too risky with his chances downfield. As you’ll see later, some of those deep shots came on third-and-long, so it’s hard to criticize those, but it’s still worth noting that Stafford can get careless with who he chooses to target on deep passes.
What about the time left on the clock? First, a breakdown of potential game situations, followed by a breakdown by quarter:
Situational Breakdown
| Crunch Time | 0 |
| Garbage Time | 1 |
| Desperation | 0 |
Quarter Breakdown
| 1st Quarter | 1 |
| 2nd Quarter | 6 |
| 3rd Quarter | 3 |
| 4th Quarter/Overtime | 3 |
Stafford only had one Garbage Time/Desperation/Crunch Time INT, and that was against the Patriots. Other than that, he mostly avoided throwing picks in the 4th Quarter. He struggled most in the second quarter, where you would hope that your team is able to build a lead and have control going into the second half. Stafford was also a comeback wizard last year, so many of those second quarter picks ended up being made irrelevant by fourth quarter comebacks.
Now let’s take a look at the interceptions he threw by down:
Down Breakdown
| 1st Down | 4 |
| 2nd Down | 4 |
| 3rd Down | 5 |
| 4th Down | 0 |
This breaks down pretty evenly for Stafford. However, as I mentioned before, he threw a lot of deep passes on third-and-long that ended up being intercepted. In fact, all 5 of his third down interceptions were deep passes in 3rd-and-10 or longer. In a lot of cases, those kinds of throws function like punts, but one did give up possession in field goal range.
What about the kinds of routes he was throwing to?
Route Breakdown
| Vertical | 6 |
| Curl | 4 |
| Out | 2 |
| Crossing | 1 |
Stafford’s interceptions did not come with a whole lot of route variety. He was mostly throwing to vertical routes, but he also targeted deep curl routes (about 20 yards down the field) a fair number of times. Rather than lacking the arm strength to throw deep balls, Stafford’s throws lacked precision.
Finally, let’s take a look at who Stafford was targeting on his interceptions:
Receiver Breakdown
| Calvin Johnson | 4 |
| Golden Tate | 4 |
| Corey Fuller | 3 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 |
| Jordan Thompson | 1 |
Calvin Johnson is great at catching contested passes. But, sometimes, Stafford threw balls that even Megatron couldn’t get under. All of the interceptions Stafford threw in Johnson’s direction were on vertical routes, and Stafford was simply off target on all of them. Had he been on target, there’s a good bet Calvin would have made those catches for big plays.
Stafford also threw to Golden Tate a lot, and he was productive, so some good with the bad makes sense. Corey Fuller, however, only caught one TD on the year while having three picks tossed his direction. That’s not a good sign for the former 6th round pick, who will be entering his third year. He was fully to blame for one of those interceptions and partially to blame for the other, so he needs to step it up in 2014.
Since you’re probably tired of tables at this point, for the rest of the article I’m going to break down each TD pass from the film.
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Interceptions
1-10-DET 48 (Q4, 12:32) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle intended for 81-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 23-M.White (21-T.DeCoud) at CAR 7. 23-M.White to CAR 30 for 23 yards (45-J.Collins).
On one hand, I would never recommend throwing into double coverage down the field. On the other, Calvin Johnson is so good at catching contested passes that Stafford has thrived off of doing just that. Calvin has the kind of ability that turns bad decisions into good ones, and I can’t fault Stafford and the Lions’ offense for exploiting that in a lot of cases. On this particular play, however, I think Stafford clearly makes a mistake by targeting Calvin. Golden Tate has found his way open against a zone at the bottom of the screen, and Stafford definitely has the time to notice that. You don’t need to go for a home run shot on every play, and Stafford paid for it here. I might have worked out, but Stafford didn’t get enough behind the pass and it was short of Calvin, then tipped and caught by the Panthers’ defense.
3-14-GB 42 (Q1, 3:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left intended for 10-C.Fuller INTERCEPTED by 21-H.Clinton-Dix at GB 17. 21-H.Clinton-Dix to GB 26 for 9 yards (35-J.Bell). PENALTY on DET-35-J.Bell, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at GB 26.
Corey Fuller comes open on a deep curl here. Stafford’s throw isn’t perfect, but it’s good enough, and Fuller gets both hands on it, but it just goes right through them. I don’t fault Stafford for this interception. A NFL-level receiver needs to make this catch.
3-10-GB 49 (Q2, 13:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 81-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 31-D.House at GB 1. 31-D.House to GB 1 for no gain (81-C.Johnson).
Once again, Stafford takes a shot to Calvin deep hoping Megatron can make a play on the ball, because he’s well covered. This time, he leads Johnson too far. It’s not a particularly smart decision, and it’s not a good throw. Stafford did have a TE open towards the closer hashes, but it was also 3rd and 10 and he probably would have been short of the first down. I guess it’s not all bad, because the Packers ended up with the ball on their 1 yard line (and the Lions would have been out of field goal range), so this was essentially a really good punt on third down.
2-8-BUF 38 (Q2, 10:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 21-R.Bush INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore at BUF 28. 24-S.Gilmore pushed ob at BUF 49 for 21 yards (15-G.Tate).
Bush is running an out route and is open. Stafford just throws the pass behind him. I wouldn’t expect Bush to make this catch because of the positioning of the throw, but I don’t think it’s fully Stafford’s fault either because he gets unlucky on the bounce.
2-2-DET 18 (Q1, :23) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 28-K.Lewis at DET 29. 28-K.Lewis to DET 29 for no gain (87-B.Pettigrew).
I think Stafford misreads the coverage on this play. The Saints are in a Cover 2 zone, and I think Stafford though Lewis was in man on Fuller, which he clearly wasn’t. Stafford simply doesn’t see Lewis in the way, and he’s able to get in front of Tate and pick this pass off. This is a very poor decision by Stafford.
2-7-NO 13 (Q4, 8:53) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 82-J.Thompson INTERCEPTED by 32-K.Vaccaro at NO 6. 32-K.Vaccaro to DET 49 for 45 yards (9-M.Stafford).
The Lions had a rash of TE injuries in 2014, and Jordan Thompson was pressed into duty. The throw is low, but he absolutely needs to make this catch. The fact that this play turned into an interception is unacceptable on the part of the receiver.
3-10-ATL 35 (Q2, 1:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left intended for 10-C.Fuller INTERCEPTED by 23-R.Alford at ATL 18. 23-R.Alford to ATL 18 for no gain (10-C.Fuller).
This interception once again isn’t fully Stafford’s fault, because Fuller slips when trying to make his break on what appears to be a deep curl route. However, I also don’t agree with Stafford’s decision to throw this pass, because Alford has solid coverage on Fuller. Even if Fuller doesn’t slip, I think Alford would have had a chance to break up the pass. Therefore, while I can’t give Stafford the full blame for this interception, I do give him partial blame.
1-10-MIA 31 (Q2, 5:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 81-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Grimes at MIA -1. Touchback.
This was the catch of the year before Odell Beckham did his thing. Grimes’ vertical leap on this play is insane, and combined with the fact that he only used one hand this is an astounding catch. If he had not done this, Calvin did have him cleanly beat for the TD. Stafford is still at fault for the interception, however, because he needs to get this pass up just a little higher to get it over Grimes’ head.
3-13-DET 44 (Q3, 4:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left intended for 81-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 26-R.Johnson (95-T.Kelly) at ARI 22. 26-R.Johnson to ARI 22 for no gain (81-C.Johnson).
Stafford has a bad habit of chucking up a prayer to Calvin Johnson and hoping for the best. This is the first interception he threw where he was actually pressured, and it’s not a good decision at all because he’s double covered. Also, the throw is nowhere near the target. Since it’s third and long and he doesn’t have any other good options, I guess this functions kind of like a punt, but that’s what the Lions pay Sam Martin for, so they would probably rather entrust those duties to him than Stafford.
1-10-DET 28 (Q4, 6:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Ryan (91-J.Collins) at NE 49. 26-L.Ryan to DET 49 for 2 yards. Lateral to 39-B.Browner to DET 46 for 3 yards (35-J.Bell).
On this play, Tate is running a seam route and gets inside position on Logan Ryan. Stafford makes the correct decision to identify this, but he’s hit as he throws by Jamie Collins and that causes his pass to go off target, allowing Ryan to make the interception. This play is really the fault of the offensive line for failing to effectively pick up the stunt run by the Patriots.
2-11-CHI 17 (Q2, 8:11) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left intended for 10-C.Fuller INTERCEPTED by 45-B.Vereen at CHI -8. Touchback.
On this play Stafford lets the pressure get to his head and tries to force a pass he shouldn’t have. Fuller is not particularly open and there are a number of Bears players with the potential to make the play on the ball. It’s not a particularly great throw, and it would have been much smarter to take a throwaway here than for this for the interception.
3-11-CHI 18 (Q2, 4:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 21-R.Mundy at CHI 1. 21-R.Mundy to CHI 2 for 1 yard (15-G.Tate).
This throw is definitely off target, and I think it was tipped. It’s really difficult to tell. In any case, it’s third-and-long in scoring range, and Stafford definitely tries to force this throw. Tate is very well blanketed by the Bears’ defense and this throw doesn’t make much sense because Stafford does not have a lane that’s available for him to throw it into. This was a bad decision and an errant throw helped make this an interception. Stafford should have instead taken one of his available check down options and hope for a first down but accept the field goal.
1-10-DET 20 (Q3, 15:00) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 51-K.Wilber (92-J.Mincey) at DET 24. 51-K.Wilber to DET 19 for 5 yards (15-G.Tate).
On this play, Golden Tate has thoroughly beaten his man on a crossing route and this play could have pick up big yardage. However, Riley Rieff gets pushed back into Stafford’s throwing lane by Jeremy Mincey, who tips the pass straight up into the air. Wilber is underneath it and makes the catch for the turnover. While it is partly on Stafford to avoid having his passes blocked by defensive linemen, the pass protection also needs to do its job and keep throwing lanes clear, so I only give Stafford partial fault on this play.
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Fumbles
2-7-GB 7 (Q3, 5:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at GB 13 for -6 yards (56-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (56-J.Peppers) (56-J.Peppers), RECOVERED by GB-56-J.Peppers at GB 13. 56-J.Peppers to GB 13 for no gain (9-M.Stafford).
I think this is actually somewhat of a positive play in terms of pocket awareness for Stafford. He seems to realize that Peppers is going to be able to hit his throwing arm, and stops his throwing motion to try to bring the ball down. It isn’t quick enough, however, and Peppers is able to knock the ball out and fall on the fumble for a recovery.
1-10-DET 23 (Q2, 1:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 19 for -4 yards (55-J.Hughes). FUMBLES (55-J.Hughes) (55-J.Hughes), and recovers at DET 22. 9-M.Stafford to DET 22 for no gain (37-N.Robey).
On this play, Stafford does a good job of navigating through a messy pocket. He thinks he’s escaped the pressure and is free, but he doesn’t realize that Jerry Hughes is right behind him about to lay the wood. I like that he got out of danger’s way and then looked to throw the ball, but it ended up coming back to bite him on this play because Hughes was still in the play.
2-10-DET 43 (Q4, 14:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 23 for -10 yards (99-M.Dareus). FUMBLES (99-M.Dareus) (99-M.Dareus), recovered by DET-12-J.Ross at DET 23. 12-J.Ross to DET 23 for no gain (55-J.Hughes).
On this play, Stafford needs to take better care of the football. He knew the hit was coming, and he needed to brace for the impact and hold on to the football. He wasn’t able to do that, but fortunately for the Lions it didn’t end up a turnover.
1-10-DET 20 (Q1, 2:53) 9-M.Stafford FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 15, recovered by DET-35-J.Bell at DET 15. 35-J.Bell to DET 15 for no gain (99-T.Jackson).
This fumble is the result of a botched handoff. The QB and RB practice this exchange quite a bit, so it’s rare to see a mishap, but Stafford and Bell clearly weren’t on the same page. It’s impossible for me to know which player was in the wrong without knowing what the play call was, because the two players were going to different landmarks.
3-12-DET 22 (Q4, 3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 17, and recovers at DET 10. 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 25-T.Riddick.
This is a bad snap that Stafford wasn’t prepared for. It came sooner than Stafford expected so it’s probably on the center. Stafford is able to make sure the Lions don’t lose anything on the play, but this did bring up a 4th down.
1-5-DET 10 (Q1, 4:26) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 4 for -6 yards (69-J.Allen). FUMBLES (69-J.Allen), RECOVERED by CHI-69-J.Allen at DET 5. 69-J.Allen to DET 5 for no gain (9-M.Stafford).
Here, the Lions’ pass protection just does a bad job and lets Jared Allen hit Stafford while he is in his throwing motion. Stafford did hitch twice so you could argue he should have released the ball sooner but really I think this is on the pass protection.
1-10-TB 38 (Q3, 2:47) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford Aborted. 51-D.Raiola FUMBLES at TB 38, recovered by DET-9-M.Stafford at TB 46. 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right. Ball thrown away.
This is a really weird play because Raiola hits himself with the snap, and it goes awry. It’s not a fumble by Stafford, but I put it on here because Stafford did a great job reacting to this and made a heads up play to throw the ball away to prevent a loss.
3-7-DET 45 (Q4, 11:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 39 for -6 yards (57-L.English). FUMBLES (57-L.English), recovered by DET-64-T.Swanson at DET 36. 64-T.Swanson to DET 36 for no gain (93-G.McCoy).
When you’re getting hit by multiple 300 pound men, it’s hard to hold onto the football. Stafford can’t do it here. Obviously you’d like to see him keep hold of the ball when he brings it down to his body in the pocket.
1-10-DET 42 (Q4, 13:36) 9-M.Stafford FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 38, RECOVERED by GB-42-M.Burnett at DET 42. 42-M.Burnett to DET 42 for no gain (77-C.Lucas).
Bell and Stafford once again mess up a handoff. This is really rare and kind of surprising it happened twice in one year. Bell just never got a solid hold on the football. This is his fault.
2-4-DET 26 (Q4, 2:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 17 for -9 yards (93-A.Spencer). FUMBLES (93-A.Spencer), RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at DET 24. 90-D.Lawrence to DET 24 for no gain (70-G.Reynolds). FUMBLES (70-G.Reynolds), RECOVERED by DET-71-R.Reiff at DET 23. 71-R.Reiff to DET 23 for no gain (96-N.Hayden).
This was an interesting play, as both teams lost fumbles and Stafford got bailed out. He was hit as he was throwing the ball, and Spencer knocked it loose. Stafford should have braced for the hit he should have seen coming rather than try to throw the pass.
4-3-DAL 42 (Q4, 1:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 49 for -9 yards (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence) (90-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at DET 47. 90-D.Lawrence to DET 47 for no gain (71-R.Reiff).
Fate was not as kind to Stafford on this play. It’s basically the same as the last one, but Lawrence held onto the football this time, and the Lions’ hopes for a comeback were shattered.
Stafford took better care of the ball in 2014 than he had in any previous season, throwing 12 interceptions, when his previous lowest total (for a full season) was 16. While Stafford was definitely more careful last year, he is still prone to being careless with the football, and that carelessness led to a number of his interceptions. On some plays, he simply trusts too much in his arm and also in his security blanket, Calvin Johnson’s, ability to catch anything thrown within a fifty mile radius of him. He gets particularly careless on third and long, which I guess isn’t the worst thing in the world because an incompletion means a punt anyway.
It’s also worth noting that Stafford almost had a clean sheet in the short passing game and threw very few of his interceptions closer than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage. This is a good sign because it means if he cleans up his ball placement on deep passes he could become close to mistake free. It’s also worth noting that there were times where his offensive line definitely failed him, and that let to both interceptions and fumbles lost. Hopefully the Lions can maintain more continuity on that front this year as well as keep Calvin Johnson, who is still one of the best weapons in the game, on the field for the entire season.
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Detroit Lions, Film Breakdowns, Football Breakdowns, Fumbles, INTs, Matthew Stafford, NFL Breakdowns, QB, Turnovers
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