What Brian Hoyer Brings to the Texans’ Offense

Progression and Decision Making

Next I want to talk about Hoyer’s progression and his decision making, since they tie into each other pretty tightly.
On his progression, Hoyer tends to not actually go through his progression. Hoyer will typically throw to his first read as soon as he finds an opening to throw to. If he doesn’t see an opening he will move on to his next read, but the problem I have with his progression is that his internal clock is too slow at times. Hoyer will sit on a read for too long at times just staring down his target before throwing the pass. He needs to do a better job of looking off the defense and helping his receivers get open instead of just expecting them to do it for him.

For example, on this play Hoyer stares down his target for far too long. This allows the defensive lineman to time his jump to disrupt the pass and cause the incompletion.

Notice how long Hoyer focuses on his target for this throw.

After avoiding the first tackler Hoyer should have moved on to his check down or his second read. He stays on his target too long on this throw and it leads to an interception.

This was a recurring problem in Hoyer’s games that I noticed. He would stare down his first read right after the snap about half the time, while the other half of the time he would freeze the safeties before staring down his first target. Hoyer can’t expect his receivers to get open on their own every time. A good quarterback should know how to help their receivers get open.

Here’s what I’d like to see more of from Hoyer:

Hoyer drops back and focuses on his first read. He eventually moves on and sees Hawkins, his second read, gaining separation. Hoyer turns back to his first read to try and draw the defense away from Hawkins and it works. That’s what Hoyer needs to be doing on nearly every play. The more a QB can help his receivers get open the more beneficial they are to their offense. Even a QB without elite athleticism or arm strength can learn how to get his receivers open and Hoyer needs to get better at it.

On his decision making, Hoyer is very quick to pick his opening and try to complete the pass. He determines who he’s going to throw to perhaps a bit too quickly, but on a good amount of his throws he gets the ball out very quickly and makes the right decision.

However, Hoyer does seem to have a problem with underneath coverage.

On this play Hoyer doesn’t see the short zone and nearly has his pass intercepted.

Hoyer misses the underneath coverage on this throw and it gets picked off.

On this throw Hoyer really has no excuse to not see the linebacker in coverage.

Predictions for the Upcoming Season

I’m not seeing a big improvement for the Texans this year, especially if Hoyer doesn’t remain consistent. Barring any major setbacks, Arian Foster should be back in the lineup around week 4 or week 5 which will help Hoyer greatly. While at Cleveland, Hoyer’s success typically coencided with the run game being effective. If the Texans get Foster back early enough Hoyer should have a much better chance to succeed this year.

The Texans also have a better group of wide receivers compared to the 2014 Browns. DeAndre Hopkins is becoming a quiet superstar for the Texans, while Nate Washington offers a veteran presence to the receiving corps. Cecil Shorts has also been fitting in well as the slot receiver and Hoyer has already had one good connection with Shorts during the preseason for a 58 yard touchdown. Hopkins, Washington, and Shorts should provide Hoyer more opportunities than Hawkins, Benjamin, and Gabriel did. I’m not including Josh Gordon since he was suspended for most of the season last year. Hoyer never really had him in the first place.

I’m predicting another 9-7 season for the team and I actually think we’ll get a glimpse of Tom Savage in one of the last two games against the Titans and Jaguars if the Texans are eliminated from the playoffs early. As for Hoyer I think he does ok for a while with some up and down games to start the year. I don’t think Mallett will replace Hoyer at any point during the season, but I do think there will be calls for Hoyer to be benched that ultimately fall on deaf ears. I think Hoyer will improve on his interceptions numbers and bring his total down to 8 on the year, while throwing 14 touchdowns. I think Hoyer will have around 3,200 yards with fairly pedestrian 61% completion percentage.

I can’t see Hoyer improving his progression or his decision making drastically over just one offseason, but if Ryan Fitzpatrick’s career year under O’Brien is any indication of what he can accomplish with journeyman QBs, then I think Hoyer will show some improvement. What I think will really benefit Hoyer is being in an offense for more than one season which he should be able to get on the Texans. I still think Hoyer will be limited by his abilites and need some help from his receivers and running backs to really win games for the Texans.